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class="ml10">时间:2018-02-02 11:19:17</span> <span class="ml10">来源:方正中期期货</span> <span class="ml10">作者:刘崇娜</span> <div class="wd80 r"> <div class="jiathis_style"> <a class="jiathis_button_weixin"></a> <a class="jiathis_button_tsina"></a> <a class="jiathis jiathis_txt jiathis_separator jtico jtico_jiathis" target="_blank"></a> </div> </div> </div> <div class="mt10"> </div> <div class="box-show"> <table width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td width="100%"> <div class="box-show-new"><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong class="gaikiwm">提要</strong></p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">在全球经济复苏下,今年美元指数大概率走低,黄金慢牛行情可期。短期来看,美联储3月加息预期不断升温,非农数据来袭,叠加美元存在超卖现象,金价将承压。</p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">自去年12月中旬以来,受美元疲软提振,投资者看涨热情高涨,黄金强势上扬。对于后市,笔者认为,金价短期振荡调整的概率较大,但从全年来看,黄金有望步入慢牛。</p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong class="gaikiwm">全球经济强势复苏</strong></p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">美元走软、黄金上涨的核心因素主要来自于全球经济的改善。历史规律表明,美元指数大概率在全球经济走强时表现偏弱。随着劳动力市场的持续改善,全球物价水平温和上升,大宗商品价格走高,全球经济正在经历自2010年以来的最快速最广泛的增长期。国际货币基金组织也再次上调了2018年全球经济增速预期至3.9%。美元指数反映了美元相对一篮子货币的强弱,除了受到美国自身经济及货币政策的影响外,在较大程度上取决于全球其他经济体,尤其是欧洲经济。最新数据显示,欧元区四季度GDP同比初值2.7%,欧元区2017年全年GDP增长2.5%,增速为十年新高。欧洲经济增长动能强劲,欧元兑美元走强令美元指数承压。</p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">在低利率下美国股市连创新高,VIX指数处于历史低位,股市泡沫不断扩大。从COMEX金价与标普500比值可以看出,金价处于相对价值洼地,2018年大概率将走高。随着资产估值不断走高,回调风险逐渐累积,市场对股市回调担忧升温,“恐慌指数”VIX指数将走高,投资者将在投资组合中添加黄金来管理风险敞口。</p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong class="gaikiwm">实物需求探底回升</strong></p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">受2017年印度新税收政策及对金饰零售交易反洗钱规定的影响,黄金实物需求疲软。2017年12月印度黄金进口量在连续3个月下滑后增长37%,表明印度税务困境正在消退,2018年印度将是黄金需求的主要增量来源。世界黄金协会数据显示,截至2017年12月,全球官方黄金储备共计33762.2吨,较11月高出226.6吨,增加近0.7%。在弱势美元的大环境下,各国央行仍将继续增加黄金储备。另外,随着全球通胀水平的回升,黄金对冲通胀需求升温。全球经济增长,将成为黄金需求增长的内生动力。</p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong class="gaikiwm">金价短期承压</strong></p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">美国2017年全年个人收入增长3.1%,为2015以来最大增幅。而12月储蓄率下降至12年低位,表明美国家庭对收入持乐观预期。美国12月核心PCE同比1.5%,持平预期及前值。美国1月“小非农”ADP新增就业23.4万人,大幅超过预期的18.5万人,令市场对即将公布的非农数据持乐观预期。美联储1月议息会议维持联邦利率不变,符合预期。并表示,通胀将在2018年上升,预计将中期内将在2%附近趋于稳定。声明公布后,美国联邦基金利率期货暗示3月加息概率升至94%,令金价承压。日本及欧洲央行均表示,仍然需要强有力的货币宽松措施来维持经济持续复苏,提高通胀水平。美债收益率走高,叠加美元遭抛售后存在反弹需求,均将打压金价。但随着我国春节临近,黄金首饰购买热潮将提振实物需求。多空因素交织,预计黄金将偏弱振荡。</p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">综上所述,在全球经济强势复苏下,今年美元指数大概率走低,股市回调的可能性加大,黄金慢牛行情可期。短期来看,美联储3月加息预期不断升温,非农数据来袭,叠加美元存在超卖现象,预计美元指数将迎来小幅反弹。此外,美债收益率走高,可能削弱无息资产黄金的吸引力,金价短期将承压。</p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p> <div class="tr mt20">研究员:韩奕舒</div> </div> </td> </tr> </table> </div> <p class="f12 c_gy_2 mt10">【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点,与本网站无关。本网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立,不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考,并请自行承担全部责任。</p> <div class="box-wenxin fix mt10"> <div class="l wd150 tc"><img src="http://www.shengjiaochun.com//images/default/tzq-android.png" alt="投资圈APP" width="97" height="70" /><p>七禾网APP投资圈(安卓版)</p></div> <div class="l wd150 tc"><img src="http://www.shengjiaochun.com//images/default/tzq-iphone.png" alt="投资圈APP" width="97" height="70" /><p>七禾网APP投资圈(苹果版)</p></div> <div class="l wd150 tc"><img src="http://www.shengjiaochun.com//images/default/7hcn-niuwx.png" alt="七禾网络" width="97" height="70" /><p>七禾网</p></div> <div class="l wd150 tc"><img src="http://www.shengjiaochun.com//images/default/7hcn-jrcg.png" 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