? 湖南千年水酒府酒业有限公司 - 七禾网对话闵强:资金的运行总是有??裳?/title> <meta name="keywords" content="趋势,交易,行情,分析,禾网,均线,持仓,净值,我们,仓位,周期,市场,波动,品种,强:,策略,定势,投资,概率,请问,"/> <meta name="description" content="七禾网专访闵强:资金的运行总是有??裳吆掏ǚ勉汕浚鹤ㄒ低蹲收吒枰鞫院筒ǘ势吆掏ǚ勉汕浚捍笄魇菩纬芍?再去寻找中小趋势七禾网专访闵强:商品维持低位震荡的可能性大七禾网专访闵强:行情来了 手里没仓是不是很遗憾?七禾网专访闵强:客观分析把握趋势 主观分析把"/> <meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"/> <meta content="www.shengjiaochun.com" name="copyright"/> <meta content="www.ezool.org" name="author"/> <link rel="shortcut icon" href="http://www.shengjiaochun.com//images/default/7hcn.ico"/> <link href="http://www.shengjiaochun.com//stuff/jqueryUi/jqueryUi.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css"/> <link href="http://www.shengjiaochun.com//stuff/jqueryUi/fdiv/fdiv.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css"/> <link href="http://www.shengjiaochun.com//stuff/thirdPart/jscal/style.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css"/> <link href="http://www.shengjiaochun.com//images/default/style.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css"/> 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class="ml10">时间:2016-06-01 16:29:10</span> <span class="ml10">来源:七禾网</span> <span class="ml10"></span> <div class="wd80 r"> <div class="jiathis_style"> <a class="jiathis_button_weixin"></a> <a class="jiathis_button_tsina"></a> <a class="jiathis jiathis_txt jiathis_separator jtico jtico_jiathis" target="_blank"></a> </div> </div> </div> <div class="mt10"> </div> <div class="box-show"> <table width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td width="100%"> <div class="box-show-new"><p style="text-indent: 2em;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 255);">七禾网注:与嘉宾的对话仅作为研究之用,不代表七禾网的观点及推荐。金融投资风险丛生,愿七禾网用户理性谨慎。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;"><br/></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;"><img src="http://www.shengjiaochun.com//f/54086/mmexport1464332842210 (1).jpg" border="0" width="265" height="371" style="width: 265px; height: 371px;"/></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong class="gaikiwm">闵强</strong></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">深圳前海恒毅鑫投资管理有限公司总经理兼投资总监。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">十多年股票投资经验,2006年进入期货行业,十年沉淀,对国内外宏观、各行业、各品种多维度潜心钻研,熟悉农产品、化工、钢铁金属等领域。擅长趋势追踪,擅于找到趋势的启动点和把握趋势运动的轨迹,连续多年获得良好收益。</p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong class="gaikiwm">访谈精彩语录:</strong></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong class="gaikiwm">市场里资金的运行总是有??裳?,它总是寻找阻力最小的方向前进。</strong></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong class="gaikiwm">纯粹投机来说,股票期货做的都是价格波动,没有本质区别。</strong></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong class="gaikiwm">通投资者的心态和投资能力上的缺陷在期货市场会暴露得更彻底。</strong></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong class="gaikiwm">专业投资者更需要市场的流动性和波动率。</strong></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong class="gaikiwm">资金流动的大方向就是所谓的趋势。大级别行情产生于中级别行情,中级别行情孕育在小级别的波动中。</strong></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong class="gaikiwm">市场的波浪总是环环相扣,波浪相生,抓住一波行情的关键不在于你看得准,而是行情来的时候你手里有单子。</strong></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong class="gaikiwm">在大趋势形成之后,再去寻找中小趋势就相对简单很多。</strong></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong class="gaikiwm">定势随机的交易模式最大特征是灵活,敞口、方向随时而变,随机而动。</strong></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong class="gaikiwm">基本面属于偏空,但商品经过连续几年下跌,在相对低位维持震荡的可能性也很大。</strong></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong class="gaikiwm">擅长均线技术以及从均线延伸出来的时间与空间技术概念。</strong></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong class="gaikiwm">技术分析在交易中作用很大,可以让我找到更好的进出场节奏,不会轻易持仓煎熬。</strong></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong class="gaikiwm">我更偏爱持仓大,交易流动性好,国内国际联动密切的品种。</strong></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong class="gaikiwm">持仓品种一般四个左右。</strong></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong class="gaikiwm">没人知道行情何时来,如果行情来了手里没仓是不是很遗憾?</strong></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong class="gaikiwm">当市场没有一致性机会的时候,会选择对冲。</strong></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong class="gaikiwm">主观分析在于进出场节奏的把握,客观分析在于趋势分析的把握。</strong></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong class="gaikiwm">小级别周期进场用自动化实现,趋势顺势单用手工。</strong></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong class="gaikiwm">在风控方案上,目前我们采取的是净值、仓位联动风控。</strong></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong class="gaikiwm">我们也加入了量化指标风控思维,即对每笔交易最大回撤净值的限制。</strong></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong class="gaikiwm">个人账户以结果为导向,产品化运作则是过程与结果并重。</strong></p><p><br/></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: 楷体, 楷体_GB2312, SimKai;"><strong class="gaikiwm">七禾网1、</strong>闵总您好,感谢您和七禾网进行深入对话。您认为投资应该做大概率的事情,赚大概率的利润,不做小概率的事件。请问就您理解而言,在投资中哪类事件是大概率事件?哪类事件是小概率事件?</span></p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong class="gaikiwm">闵强:</strong>市<strong class="gaikiwm">场里资金的运行总是有??裳?,它总是寻找阻力最小的方向前进,个别因素无法改变这个轨迹,这就是大概率事件。</strong>而在一些流动性不佳或者市场因素被扭曲的品种上,尽管波动很大,赢利可观,那也不值得我参与。</p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: 楷体, 楷体_GB2312, SimKai;"><strong class="gaikiwm">七禾网2、</strong>如果遇到黑天鹅之类的小概率事件,应如何抓取机会和应对风险?</span></p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong class="gaikiwm">闵强:</strong>我的理念是做大概率的行情,赚大概率的钱。黑天鹅事件从概率论上讲是小概率事件或者局部事件,短期会使得行情产生较大的波动,但不会产生颠覆性的影响。当然遇到这样的事情我会先判断是孤立事件还是可能造成骨牌效应,然后去调整仓位,识别和规避风险本身就是投资行为的一部分。一些逆向波动的毛刺在容忍范围内是不需要特别调整的,因为我在布局的时候已经考虑到黑天鹅的因素。</p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: 楷体, 楷体_GB2312, SimKai;"><strong class="gaikiwm">七禾网3、</strong>目前您兼顾股票和期货,请问以股票为主还是期货为主?您在股票和期货上的交易手法有何相同之处,有何不同之处?</span></p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong class="gaikiwm">闵强:</strong>目前管理规模下还是以期货为主,交易系统建立后其实股票期货本质上是一样的,只是两个市场在资金容量上有比较大的区别。</p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: 楷体, 楷体_GB2312, SimKai;"><strong class="gaikiwm">七禾网4、</strong>就您看来,股票市场本质和期货市场本质有何不同?</span></p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong class="gaikiwm">闵强:</strong>股票市场做的是对投资企业未来收益的预期,期货市场做的是标的物价格的预期。<strong class="gaikiwm">纯粹投机来说,做的都是价格波动,没有本质区别。</strong>从投资角度来说,股票可做长期投资,而期货不宜做长期投资。</p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: 楷体, 楷体_GB2312, SimKai;"><strong class="gaikiwm">七禾网5、</strong>对普通投资者来说更适合股票市场还是期货市???对专业投资者来说更适合股票市场还是期货市???为什么?</span></p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong class="gaikiwm">闵强:</strong><strong class="gaikiwm">普通投资者的心态和投资能力上的缺陷在期货市场会暴露得更彻底,专业投资者更需要市场的流动性和波动率,</strong>至于是在哪个市场做并非关键。</p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: 楷体, 楷体_GB2312, SimKai;"><strong class="gaikiwm">七禾网6、</strong>您擅长趋势追踪,请问在您的概念中,何为趋势?您捕捉的是哪个级别或哪几个级别的趋势?</span></p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong class="gaikiwm">闵强:</strong><strong class="gaikiwm">资金流动的大方向就是所谓的趋势。大级别行情产生于中级别行情,中级别行情孕育在小级别的波动中。市场的波浪总是环环相扣,波浪相生,抓住一波行情的关键不在于你看得准,而是行情来的时候你手里有单子。</strong></p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: 楷体, 楷体_GB2312, SimKai;"><strong class="gaikiwm">七禾网7、</strong>识别趋势并不难,难在找到趋势的启动点,您在寻找趋势启动点方面颇有心得。请问一波趋势的启动点一般有哪些特征或迹象? </span></p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong class="gaikiwm">闵强:</strong>趋势是相对的,同时趋势又可细分为大趋势和中小趋势,在大趋势的判断确立之后,再去寻找中小趋势就相对简单很多。一个大行情的酝酿通常不会表现在某个时间点上,而是体现在一个时间段内。通常说的横有多长,竖有多高就是这个道理。例如V型反转行情我并不觉得是趋势改变的唯一特征,那可能是资金的狙击行为,尽管有很大的获利机会,但不是我关注的点。</p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: 楷体, 楷体_GB2312, SimKai;"><strong class="gaikiwm">七禾网8、</strong>一波趋势行情在演进的过程中,通常不是一帆风顺的,会有一些波折,而您擅于把握趋势运动的轨迹。请问,一般来说趋势运动的轨迹分为哪些类型?如何识别和应对不同的运动轨迹?</span></p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong class="gaikiwm">闵强:</strong>具体行情具体分析,一般来说会根据当时基本面情况以及不同周期的技术结构来分析。单周期趋势运动的轨迹我们一般分为上涨、下跌以及震荡走势。</p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: 楷体, 楷体_GB2312, SimKai;"><strong class="gaikiwm">七禾网9、</strong>您以基本面分析定势,以技术面分析随机调整仓位,以实现定势随机的交易模式。请问这一交易模式的最大特征和最大好处是什么?</span></p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong class="gaikiwm">闵强:</strong><strong class="gaikiwm">定势随机的交易模式最大特征是灵活,敞口、方向随时而变,随机而动。</strong>和传统的趋势策略相比,定势随机策略把以往忍受市场煎熬的时间转为获利的机会,可以得到更高的风险收益比。</p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: 楷体, 楷体_GB2312, SimKai;"><strong class="gaikiwm">七禾网10、</strong>就目前的基本面情况而言,商品市场是偏多还是偏空的?为什么?</span></p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong class="gaikiwm">闵强:</strong>目前市场比较复杂,个人认为<strong class="gaikiwm">基本面属于偏空,但商品经过连续几年下跌,在相对低位维持震荡的可能性也很大。</strong></p><p><br/></p> <div class="tr mt20">研究员:张文慧</div> </div> </td> </tr> </table> <div id="pager"><div class="pages box-page space tc"><em>Total:2</em><strong class="gaikiwm">1</strong><a href="http://www.shengjiaochun.com//article/245414-2.html">2</a></div></div> </div> <p class="f12 c_gy_2 mt10">【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点,与本网站无关。本网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立,不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考,并请自行承担全部责任。</p> <div class="box-wenxin fix mt10"> <div class="l wd150 tc"><img src="http://www.shengjiaochun.com//images/default/tzq-android.png" alt="投资圈APP" width="97" height="70" /><p>七禾网APP投资圈(安卓版)</p></div> <div class="l wd150 tc"><img src="http://www.shengjiaochun.com//images/default/tzq-iphone.png" alt="投资圈APP" width="97" height="70" /><p>七禾网APP投资圈(苹果版)</p></div> <div class="l wd150 tc"><img 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