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class="ml10">时间:2012-05-09 15:41:18</span> <span class="ml10">来源:期货中国</span> <span class="ml10"></span> <div class="wd80 r"> <div class="jiathis_style"> <a class="jiathis_button_weixin"></a> <a class="jiathis_button_tsina"></a> <a class="jiathis jiathis_txt jiathis_separator jtico jtico_jiathis" target="_blank"></a> </div> </div> </div> <div class="mt10"> </div> <div class="box-show"> <table width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td width="100%"> <div class="box-show-new"><p> </p><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 255); font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; line-height: 28px; text-indent: 28px;">七禾网注:嘉宾回答仅代表其本人观点,不代表七禾网的观点及推荐。金融投资风险丛生,愿七禾网用户理性谨慎。</span></p><p><img src="http://www.shengjiaochun.com//attachments/201205/09/7f2828203cfbafef83c3192e4dd96478.jpg" alt="张仲健-内容.jpg"/><br/></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm">张仲健</strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm"><br/></strong></p><p>业内资深职业投资人。期货程序化交易实践者。1992年开始进入股票市场,期货市场,参与过国债现货与期货、商品期货、恒生指数期货、外汇交易,有较大资金操作经验。能够理性地对市场做出判断,多年来盈利稳定。在期货市场的交易理念是:“右侧交易,适时获利,坚决止损”。</p><p><br/></p><p>张老师在文华财经的平台上开发了“鳄鱼图”,以简单、清晰、明确的交易信号,合理地诠释了金融市场上的价格运动规律。</p><p><br/></p><p><span style="font-family:楷体_GB2312">访谈精彩语录:</span></p><p><span style="font-family:楷体_GB2312"><br/></span></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm">(股市)赚钱效应在下降,盈利难度增加。</strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm">(期市)“羊”的比例在下降,“狼”的比例在增加。</strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm">程序化交易,它既是一门技术也是一门艺术。</strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm">做期货,趋势来了进场,当能量衰减就选择退场,并不是一定要等到反向信号出来。</strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm">我主张计算机辅助交易,不等于全自动交易。</strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm">交易的实质是在做概率游戏。</strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm">价格的运行既有随机性也有一定的规律。</strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm">K线是一门语言,你只有掌握了才能与它交流。</strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm">通过程序化交易的学习,你能提高与市场交流的能力。</strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm">我个人觉得程序化交易并不死板,程序化交易本身就是一种智慧。</strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm">实际上价格是有规律的,可以把价格看成大于零的位移,它和速度、加速度有关。首先要判断方向,其次要判断能量,当方向、速度、加速度都一致,这时就可以放大胆子交易。</strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm">做技术分析就像医学</strong><strong style="text-indent: 2em; ">里的一套诊断系统。</strong></p><p><strong style="text-indent: 2em; "><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm">发生突发重大事件时也可以对交易系统进行干预。不明朗可以先退出观望。</strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm">资金量在100万以上的应该关注3个以上的品种。资金量在5万以下关注1-2个品种就可以。50万只做股指期货也不错。</strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm">全自动交易对各方面的要求高一点,相对来说半自动的模型好写一些。</strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm">鳄鱼交易法则认为市场70%到85%是震荡的,15%到30%是有趋势的,在没有趋势的前提下就休息,有趋势的时候就交易。</strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm">鳄鱼交易法则的核心是“市场告诉我们什么,我们就做什么”,洛氏霍克交易法的核心是做相对确定的交易,尽量不发生交易亏损。</strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm">程序化要稳定收益一定要多品种多周期。</strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm">能量是领先于价格的。</strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm">做减法的指标是领先指标,做加法的是滞后指标。</strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm">没有一套系统能解决所有的交易问题。</strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm">把握不大的交易仓位要严格控制。当盲鸡行情来了,就应该放大仓位,但最好不要拼死一博。</strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm">用模型组合与时间周期组合解决模型失效问题。</strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm">这个市场明星很多,寿星不多。能挣大钱是他们的福气,我不会眼红。</strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm">这个市场如果老老实实做肯定能有点盈利,就怕随便乱做。</strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm">我认为鳄鱼跟海龟结合起来比较好。</strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm"><br/></strong></p><p><span style="font-family:楷体_GB2312"><strong class="gaikiwm">期货中国1、</strong>张老师您好,感谢您在百忙之中接受期货中国网的专访。您从92年开始进入股票期货市场,这些年来,您感觉中国股市的最大变化是什么?中国期市的最大变化是什么?</span></p><p><br/></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm">张仲?。?/strong>中国股票市场这几年变化很大,发展很快,上市公司数量巨增,<strong class="gaikiwm">市场赚钱效应在下降,盈利难度增加。</strong></p><p><br/></p><p>中国期货市场发展也很快,上了许多新品种,市场参与者素质明显提高。<strong class="gaikiwm">市场中“羊”的比例在下降,“狼”的比例在增加</strong>,交易手段与方法丰富了许多。</p><p><br/></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm"><br/></strong></p><p><span style="font-family:楷体_GB2312"><strong class="gaikiwm">期货中国2</strong>、您从哪一年开始研究程序化交易?您现在是否所有的交易都执行程序化指令?</span></p><p><br/></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm">张仲?。?/strong>我是2003年开始接触到程序化交易。我个人推崇计算机辅助交易。我不会执行所有的程序化交易指令。</p><p><br/></p><p><span style="font-family:楷体_GB2312"><strong class="gaikiwm">期货中国:</strong>请问您为什么选择性地执行指令?</span></p><p><br/></p><p>张仲?。阂膊皇峭耆庋?,比如说我现在跟你认识,我只要见到你,我就能知道你叫沈良,但是我用个模型识别就很困难了,这个模型我也不一定做得出来。<strong class="gaikiwm">程序化交易,它既是一门技术也是一门艺术</strong>,有些东西可能一目了然,但是要写成程序就很困难,而且各人的条件不同,有些人的计算机水平好一点,有些人数理水平好一点,从图形转化成数字相对困难。一般的期货投资者,我主张用趋势模型??梢灾葱腥远?,趋势来了,让它自动进场。一般来说<strong class="gaikiwm">做期货,趋势来了进场,当能量衰减就选择退场,并不是一定要等到反向信好出来</strong>,等反向信号出来可能原来趋势已经破坏,两头的损失比较大,中间赚的比较小,甚至两边一减利润就没了。小周期做趋势的模型做出来总是亏钱的多,因为小周期趋势不明确,被来回洗的概率高。所以进场的时候比较顺利地进去,进去了感觉不舒服了就出来,从这个角度我不主张完全按信号执行,有方向信号就进去,没有到止损也可以出来,我认为这样的交易方法比较好,所以<strong class="gaikiwm">我主张计算机辅助交易,不等于全自动交易</strong>。</p><p><br/></p><p><br/></p><p><span style="font-family:楷体_GB2312"><strong class="gaikiwm">期货中国3、</strong>您为什么选择程序化交易?程序化交易的好处有哪些?</span></p><p><br/></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm">张仲?。?/strong>丰富自己的交易,提高对市场认知水平。<strong class="gaikiwm">交易的实质是在做概率游戏</strong>。<strong class="gaikiwm">价格的运行既有随机性也有一定的规律。</strong>通过对市场价格的研究能发现其中的规律。<strong class="gaikiwm">K线是一门语言,你只有掌握了才能与它交流。通过程序化交易的学习,你能提高与市场交流的能力</strong>。现在的市场中有人走入程序化研究的误区,希望能找到一个模型战胜市场。更有一些人搞伪程序化交易。</p><p><br/></p><p><span style="font-family:楷体_GB2312"><strong class="gaikiwm">期货中国:</strong>有些人在搞伪程序化交易,请问什么叫做“伪程序化交易”?</span></p><p><br/></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm">张仲?。?/strong>他可能以程序化的名义去吸引客户,并不是用程序交易去做交易。有两种情况,第一种,过度模拟过去的历史数据做出来的模型,未来未必适用,但能忽悠人。第二种,在模型里使用未来函数,测试很好,看上起效益很好,然后去吸引客户。另外,有一些人打着程序化交易的旗号,直接在图上标上这个地方买那个地方卖,这种画个信号就算程序化交易,对实战没有意义,甚至起到了欺骗的作用。所以我把这些情况定义为伪程序化交易。</p><p><br/></p><p><br/></p><p><span style="font-family:楷体_GB2312"><strong class="gaikiwm">期货中国4、</strong>有人说程序化交易死板,抹煞了人的智慧和能动性,对此您怎么看?</span></p><p><br/></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm">张仲?。何腋鋈司醯贸绦蚧灰撞⒉凰腊?,程序化交易本身就是一种智慧。</strong>这个市场许多亏损都是随意交易的结果。</p><p><br/></p><p><span style="font-family:楷体_GB2312"><br/></span></p><p><span style="font-family:楷体_GB2312"><strong class="gaikiwm">期货中国5、</strong>一套完整的程序化交易系统应该包括哪几个部分?您觉得其中哪个部分最为重要?</span></p><p><br/></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm">张仲?。?/strong>首先要对市场的状态有个客观的评判,在客观评判市场的基础上,有完善的资金管理系统与策略管理系统。</p><p><br/></p><p>哪一个部分最重要则很难说,首先如果你没有一套客观的系统,就不会盈利,第二在客观评价市场的基础上,实际上<strong class="gaikiwm">价格是有规律的,可以把价格看成大于零的位移,它和速度、加速度有关。首先要判断方向,其次要判断能量,当方向、速度、加速度都一致,这时就可以放大胆子交易。我们做技术分析就像医学里的一套诊断系统</strong>,首先要诊断才知道情况怎么样,然后考虑该怎么做。也像打仗,首先分析敌我之间力量的对比,包括地形、地貌,然后决定什么时候打,如果错了怎么退出来。一定要说哪个部分重要,很难量化,有人说技术分析占10%,资金管理70%,我觉得这都不可取,就像一场战役,只要一个环节出问题,就会很困难。就像毛主席过去打仗,他弱的时候就5比1和你打,一旦不是这个比例就撤,到了解放战争后期,就无所谓几比几了,谁赢了就是谁的天下,有必要放手一搏,所以有的时候资金量可以大一点,有的时候资金量要小一点,一定要量化,我觉得很困难。</p><p><br/></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm"><br/></strong></p><p><span style="font-family:楷体_GB2312"><strong class="gaikiwm">期货中国6、</strong>一般来说,程序化交易者是不看基本面的,您是否完全不看基本面?基本面信息的变化,对您的交易会不会产生影响?</span></p><p><br/></p><p><strong class="gaikiwm">张仲?。?/strong>我不是生活在真空中,基本面的重大变化一定会在程序化交易中表现出来。<strong class="gaikiwm">发生突发重大事件时也可以对交易系统进行干预。不明朗可以先退出观望。</strong></p><p><br/></p><p><br/></p> <div class="tr mt20">研究员:翁建平</div> </div> </td> </tr> </table> <div id="pager"><div class="pages box-page space tc"><em>Total:3</em><strong class="gaikiwm">1</strong><a href="http://www.shengjiaochun.com//article/105450-2.html">2</a><a href="http://www.shengjiaochun.com//article/105450-3.html">3</a></div></div> </div> <p class="f12 c_gy_2 mt10">【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点,与本网站无关。本网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立,不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考,并请自行承担全部责任。</p> <div class="box-wenxin fix mt10"> <div class="l wd150 tc"><img src="http://www.shengjiaochun.com//images/default/tzq-android.png" alt="投资圈APP" width="97" height="70" /><p>七禾网APP投资圈(安卓版)</p></div> <div class="l wd150 tc"><img 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